Real time advertising could play a role in sustainable behaviour change

Originally published in Guardian Sustainable Business in 2014 following on from two features I wrote for the Drum on the rise of programmatic media trading and its disruption of the advertising industry. They’re quite technical, but read them here and here (I recommend Digiday’s WTF series if you want help decoding all the jargon).

If you read the marketing press at all, you will have heard of a new trend in “real time advertising”. If not, you’ll be aware of sites asking you to opt into cookies, or being followed around the internet by shoes you almost bought a week ago.

Gone are the days when advertisers had to buy large amounts of space in a magazine they hoped the target demographic would read. Now, individuals can be targeted, based on information harvested from your desktop and mobile phone. Ad space is bought and sold in real time, based on what data predicts you might do next.

The most prevalent way of using this technology is re-targeting, where advertisements appear for sites you have recently visited. However, data collecting and pattern spotting are now getting more sophisticated. Analytics agencies claim to be able to predict where you might go next and place ads for corresponding sites. If you have searched for flights to Amsterdam, you might start to see adverts for Amsterdam hotels, car hire and money changing services.

A recent campaign, designed to increase sales of Vodafone roaming packages in the Netherlands over the summer reportedly improved conversion rates by 198%. If buying behaviour can be changed in this way, could other behaviours? Could real time advertising be used to act as nudges towards more sustainable behaviour? Given the industry is advancing at such a rate, the question may not be “what could we do with this technology?”, but rather “what should we do with it?”

Personal data collected in this way is already being used, with consent, in smoking cessation studies. Human behaviour is strongly influenced by situation. Data collected through mobile phones is used to pinpoint situations where the user is most likely to want to smoke and time the delivery of text messages or other nudges. UCL recently analysed the StopAdvisor website, which demonstrated a 36% higher quit rate among smokers with lower incomes who used the interactive site over a static information website.

Dr Jamie Brown, research associate at UCL, who was heavily involved in the StopAdvisor study sums up the advantages of digitally placed nudges: “Previously, there would have been a disconnect between the messaging and the call to action. You may have seen a hard-hitting smoking campaign on television and thought about quitting, but not been able to get a doctor’s appointment that week. Here you have the opportunity to connect the two.”

Personalisation: a mixed bag

However, changing a health-based behaviour through a series of structured interventions in an environment where they’ve opted in is very different to changing a more abstract one in the advertising space. While there is much hype surrounding real time advertising, not everyone is convinced the technology is advanced enough to be truly effective. One issue is the ability for the ads to be truly personalised.

We know that the more personalised something is, the more likely we are to react well to it (think of the success of Coca-Cola’s named cans), yet, if something is not personalised enough, it can actually cause negative reactants. Dr Felix Naughton, senior research associate at the University of Cambridge, explains how we find crudely personalised spam insulting. Those of us sharing devices who have received untimely clues to our partner’s Christmas present searches, or been chased around Facebook by weight loss products merely because we are in our 30s and female will know this well.

Both academics and agency people are sceptical that changing complex or habitual behaviours could be achieved through real time advertising alone, but seemed to think it could be used as a part of a framework of interventions. However, it seems that the technology is not currently being used by behaviour change agencies and according to Oliver Payne, founder of behaviour change agency, The Hunting Dynasty, the need for better targeting is not the reason.

He talks of an agency knowledge gap around behaviour change and calls for more psychologists and anthropologists to be recruited into communications. He also warns of the mistake of overvaluing “creativity” when designing strategies for behavioural change; starting with the sometimes repetitive or unglamorous methods that are proven to work is often better. Indeed, much of the current conversation around real time advertising is about the way it is bought and sold “programmatically” (much like the stock market) and not about how it can be effectively integrated into the creative process.

Of course, all of this use of data to manipulate behaviour strays dangerously into debatable ethical territory. As recent scandals involving Facebook and OKCupid have shown, people don’t take kindly to being manipulated without their consent. Jez Groom, group chief strategy officer of Ogilvy & Mather and co-founder of #ogilvychange identifies some of the ethical issues with combining personal data with psychology to nudge them to make certain choices: “You’re looking at personal, subconscious signals and you’re using this to direct people to things that are not necessarily in their best interests in the long term… I think we’re quite close to the line of acceptability already, and that’s a narrative I wouldn’t want to happen.”

However, others, such as Todd Tran, Nexage’s Europe managing director, believe the evidence suggests we are happy for advertisers to send us relevant advertisements and currently have limited privacy fears with respect to it. He believes we are seeing an emerging conversation where consumers will be “building, providing and selling their profiles to take control of the process and increase the percentage of relevant ads”. This, in itself could represent a behaviour change opportunity. Could users start to opt into advertising that nudges them towards a sustainable lifestyle?

Real time advertising could have a future as a behaviour change tool as part of a wider strategy, but it still needs to overcome current technological barriers and an agency skills gap before it will do. In the interim, it will continue be used to make it easier for us to buy ever more things.

Gamification and consumer engagement

First published on 2Degrees in 2011 when I was working for OgilvyEarth. The conversation’s moved on since then, but, it covers an interesting application of behaviour change principles which should be used to inspire creative in a world of real time media buying. You can also see my Futerra blog post on the same subject here. Enjoy!

Image source: http://hr.blr.com/HR-news/HR-Administration/HR-Strategy/5-ways-employers-fail-with-gamification-and-how-to

Gamification is the hottest of all the buzz words right now. If you believe the hype, it’s about to revolutionise healthcare, marketing and our working environment. However, as with all hyped issues, it is not based in completely new theory. Investment banking relies on game dynamics such as feedback, competition and reward. You could even argue a great meeting or pitch amounts to an ‘epic win’, a promotion ‘levelling up’. However, applying it to products or campaigns is a complex task, requiring detailed knowledge about the audience you’re trying to reach, plus the dynamics needed to create the intrinsic motivation to stay involved. The role of gamification in consmer engagement is complex, but here are my thoughts on its importance:

Gamification can broaden your audience
The work that Greenpeace have already done on their Volkswagen campaign show us that gamification can spark the interest of those who would not normally be interested in environmental initiatives. Many of those that signed up for the Greenpeace campaign didn’t get involved just because they cared about the issue, they were initially intrigued by the game dynamics and the opportunity to become a Jedi Knight. Some will have more deeply engaged with the issue than others and the game dynamics could have done more to encourage continued participation, but the sign up rate was excellent.

Gamification can drive sales
The Tesco computers for schools system is a simple, yet effective campaign. Parents who shop at Tesco receive vouchers for free computing equipment. The more the school collect, the more computers they receive. The same is true of loyalty schemes, clubcards and frequent flyer points. The incentive is desirable, but requires frequent visit/use of the service to obtain. By creating an incentive to choose one outlet over another, the decision over which supermarket to choose or mode of travel becomes instantly skewed in favour of those with the best incentive. Gamification can drive decision making and create loyalty.

Gamification has the power to change behaviour through play
The Nissan Leaf and supporting ‘Carwings’ website’ use visual displays to feed back to the driver how fuel efficient their driving is. Not only that, but it publishes region-wide and global leader boards, allowing drivers to compete against each other. Aimed at the green pound, it resonates well with its audience. It encourages efficient driving by promoting autonomy through goals and feedback, as well as encouraging the user to build their driving ability to experience key game dynamics of ‘flow’ and ‘mastery’. Nissan are claiming a significant cost saving when running the Leaf, enhanced by users trying to beat their best drive and become more efficient than others around them. Most consumer products have their biggest impact during use, meaning companies such as Unilever, who are looking to reduce the impact of their customers’ behaviour as well as their own, must be looking to gamification to help them achieve this goal.

However, we must not forget what we know
For all the opportunities that gamification presents, we will see many poorly planned campaigns where little heed has been paid to the personalities and values of the intended audience. The key to success will be to finding effective methods of identifying the audience’s motivating factors. If used badly, gamification has the potential to be counterproductive. Dan Pink has comprehensively documented how ill advised incentives can actually cause the opposite behaviour to what we expect. Anyone who has bribed their teenager with money to clean their room will know what happens when the incentive is removed. One of the big stumbling blocks will be building longevity into the game dynamics.

In conclusion
The key point is that we must not forget that gamification is simply the latest development in a field of motivational psychology that has developed enormously over the last 30 years. It should be used with skill, but has great potential to both engage and change behaviour. In the words of Albert Einstein:
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”

On the buses: supermodels and hyperbole

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Brazil is in trouble.

And not the kind of trouble the foreign press would like to think. You’d think we were all under siege over here, afraid of riots, muggings and vandalism. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. Yes, we are careful of our stuff and ourselves, yes things get stolen, yes, people get hurt, but it is not the all out warfare that is projected in the foreign media. It’s not all the manufactured tranquil of Zona Sul either, but that’s another blog.

In my opinion, Brazil is under threat from the car and from marketers and businesses selling outdated aspirations. (I know it sounds worthy, but stick with me here).

There was a bus strike in Rio yesterday. For anyone who’s never caught a bus here, it’s a frustrating and death defying experience. First you have to work out where you catch your bus (there will be no clues or information on the bus stops), wait between 30 minutes and 60 seconds, negotiate a cumbersome turnstile, operated by people who never have change, then spend around 45 minutes desperately clinging on to whatever isn’t nailed down as the bus driver re-enacts scenes from ‘Speed’. It’s not for the faint hearted. In fact, part of being a true ‘Carioca’ is, in fact, the ability to moan with great passion about bus drivers, traffic and transport.

It wasn’t great, we were lucky enough to borrow a car and be able to afford taxis. But not everyone can do that. In fact, people got very frustrated with the fact that their main method of transport was inaccessible, meaning they couldn’t get to work, care for their families etc. Some of these people vandalised buses, many of them switched to their cars and contributed to awful traffic conditions today too. Most of you who live in London are probably thinking ‘Yeah, well you should have been here for the Tube strike’ but this is a bigger problem than you might think. You will still get on your train/tube/bus to go to work next week (cursing maybe, but you’ll do it) and you’ll still do it five years from now (unless you move to Bath, Somerset, or Florida, none of which have much of a public transport system to speak of). But, judging by the evidence we see today, Brazilians won’t if they can help it…. and there are a lot more of them than there are of you.

According to CEBEDS, most of Brazilian’s rising middle class dream of owning a car. This was true for Gen X in the States, a car represented freedom and the ability to travel and connect with others. However, millennials in the States and Europe have largely rejected this consumption dream, preferring to stay connected through their Smartphones. As Jonah Hill observes in the hilariously satirical ’21 Jump Street’: Liking comic books is popular, environmental awareness, being tolerant. If I was just born ten years later, I would have been the coolest person ever!” This can’t happen in Rio, the infrastructure simply isn’t there. Traffic congestion now obstructs over 130 km (81 miles) of the city and in 2012 represented a loss of Us$14 billion, according to a survey by FIRJAN. And don’t get me started on the asthma inducing air quality. Traffic is strangling Brazil’s cities and causing billions of Reais in losses.

Driving itself is a pleasurable experience and owning a car is necessary and desirable for lots of people, it’s just that if everyone owns one and drives it at the same time in a place that can’t cope, there becomes a problem. Who’s to blame? Advertising and the media can take some of it. We know we get signals on how to behave from those around us, just as we do from advertising and the media (it’s called ‘peripheral processing’). To pick up magazines, or watch the television, you’d think that everyone in Brazil was rich, white and owned a car. In a place where people are less cynical towards brands, marketers and the media have a potentially enormous impact on the consumption patterns of the populace. The ‘Rolezinho’ movement want their piece of the pie and we don’t seem to have learned anything from things like the London Riots. Coupled with the unreliability of the public transport system, no wonder people dream of having a car.

Rant over, but I do think Brazil is in need of some better advertising guidelines and some good behaviour change campaigns (more on how to do that here). New road building, extensions to the Metro, bus lanes and things like the ‘Bilhete Unico’, (a time rather than trip based Oyster card type system) or apps like ‘Moovit’ have made things better, but change needs to go further to reverse the trend towards car ownership.

In his TED Talk, Sweat the Small Stuff, the polemic Rory Sutherland asks:

“Why is it necessary to spend six billion pounds speeding up the Eurostar train when, for a about 10 percent of that money, you could have top supermodels, male and female, serving free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers for the entire duration of the journey? You’d still have 5 billion left in change, and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.”

I’m not necessarily suggesting we get zunga wearing hotties to fan us on buses (not the ‘necessarily’ in that sentence), but even a bit of bus driver training, regular fleet servicing and an end to the tyranny of  bus turnstiles isn’t going to change the idea of the ‘car as a status symbol’. Maybe glamourising car sharing is the answer, or having luxury priority buses (these already exist, but I would want a little more luxury for RS$15 a trip), or installing phone chargers and entertainment systems on some, or up playing the fact you can stay connected through mobile devices. I don’t know, but people would, if we asked them (my survey of Gringos and housemates doesn’t count) and, judging by the statistics, it’s important we do.

*Ahem, thanks. Climbs down off soap box*

Behavior change: the epic adventure

Our five point framework for behavior change joy
Our five point framework for behavior change joy

Well, not quite, but being involved has been epic. I helped write and launch the first practical behavior change framework for any emerging economy this week at Sustainable Brands 2014 in Rio. It’s been put together by myself, Pablo Barros and Fatima Cardoso of Eight Sustainability Platform with input from partners like Futerra and is a five point process for creating behavior change that’s tailored for Brazil.

Brazil is at a critical time in terms of attitudes to sustainability (both social and environmental). Although Brazil has the highest number of ‘Advocates’ and ‘Aspirational’ consumers (who are potential supporters of sustainable initiatives), there is a big gap between intention and action. Beautiful, emotional mainstream marketing and behavior change campaigns exist (such as Sport Club do Recife’s ‘Immortal Fans‘ campaign), but many still fall into the trap of being boring, rational or not based on consumer insight. The timing is critical as progress on social and environmental issues needs to be demonstrated to make the next stage of consumer awareness normalisation (such as in Scandinavia) rather than cynicism and apathy (such as in the UK or USA).

The framework draws from learnings and methodologies from the US and UK and applies them to the Brazilian consumer and context. It is intended to help brands and governments create campaigns to close this gap. I was lucky enough to be involved in writing it and hope you enjoy. Feel free to comment, heckle or ask questions. There’s a ‘contact me’ box on the ‘Hire me’ section of the site.

Download the report here.